India thermal capacity target unlikely to materialize

India is on the verge of missing the capacity addition targets for 11th Plan, with a cumulative capacity addition of merely 8,101 MW during the third quarter of FY 2011-12. 

The goal for the 11th plan was initially set to 78,577 MW, which was later scaled down to 62,374 MW by the Planning Commission. Even this revised target seems to be out of reach, since only 50,282 MW will be added by the third quarter end and the remaining amount of 11,092 MW will be too high to be achieved in the last quarter.

The situation for the ongoing quarter looks bleak, with the estimated addition for the month of September likely to fall short of its target of 7,743 MW. Although the thermal capacity addition is likely to double over a period of 4 months from 6,580 MW to 13,101 MW, the goals set for the quarter are too ambitious and may not be fulfilled by the contribution of thermal and hydro sectors.

According to the estimates provided by the Central Electricity Authority, the capacity addition by nuclear sector will amount to 1,000 MW for both November and December, whereas that by hydro sector will only increase by 580 MW during the quarter period.