Non-hydropower to grow 230GW annually from 2020 to 2024

Asia will be the key growth driver, accounting for 55% global generation growth.

Non-hydropower renewable capacity is expected to continue its surge over the near term with the average annual additions reaching 230 gigawatts (GW) between 2020 and 2024, with Asia as the key growth driver.

In a report, Fitch Solutions said that the average annual addition is up from 141GW between 2016 and 2020.
Asia will be the key driver of growth as it is expected to account for 55% of global generation growth between 2021 and 2030, with China making up 46% of renewables growth with 730GW additions, it said.

“Non-hydropower renewable growth will surge over the near term with growth led by Asia and Western Europe as energy security trends drive the sector forwards,” Fitch said.

“This surge in net capacity additions of non-hydropower renewables will be able to facilitate a robust growth in electricity generation. This plays into our forecast that non-hydropower renewables' share of the generation mix will increase by about 7.3%, from 13.3% at end-2021 to 20.6% in 2031,” it added.

With this, non-hydropwer renewables generation will be about 2,060 terawatt-hours with an annual growth rate of 8.4% from 2022 to 2031.

Fitch also stated that the Middle East and North Africa region’s growth in the near term has some of the largest increases in terms of net capacity additions.

North America and Western Europe, meanwhile, will see average annual non-hydropower renewables addition over the near term of 60GW, due to decarbonisation efforts in the power sector and their exposure to gas imports and rising volatility and energy security issues.